In this episode, I sit down with Carlo Masala, one of Europe’s leading security scholars, to discuss his new book If Russia Wins. Our conversation explores the possibility of a Russian victory in a limited war against NATO.
We discuss why Carlo Masala chose a scenario-based approach, how a limited Russian incursion could unravel NATO’s Article 5, and why Europe may be far less prepared — militarily, politically, and societally — than many assume. The discussion also covers Germany’s role, the limits of European defense without the United States, Ukraine’s place in a future security architecture, and why resilient societies may matter more than tanks and fighter jets.
This is a wide-ranging conversation about deterrence, rearmament, political leadership, and the uncomfortable trade-offs Europe faces in the years ahead.
00:00 Why this book
02:10 The Narva scenario
05:00 Europe’s return to normal
09:40 Breaking NATO’s promise
12:30 Can Europe defend itself?
15:00 NATO without the US
19:30 Germany must lead
27:20 Who will fight?
29:50 Resilient societies
31:10 Ukraine’s future role
38:50 A hyper-nationalist world
48:00 Final reflections
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