After 40 days of war, a (first) ceasefire is taking effect between the US/Israel and Iran. However, nobody is fooled about the prospects of this pause in the fighting to durably end the conflict. However, the fact that the US was compelled into this break speaks volumes about the new distribution of power in West Asia. The US will never gain back what it just lost.
Today, I'm speaking again with retired Colonel Douglas Macgregor about the ceasefire, Trump’s threats, Iran’s missile strength, damaged US bases, Israeli pressure on Washington, the risk of wider economic shock, and Europe’s weak place in NATO. Macgregor argues Iran kept the strategic edge, the US needed the pause, and Israel remains the main block in any wider settlement.
Links:
Douglas Macgregor Substack:
https://macgregorwarrior.substack.com/Neutrality Studies substack:
https://pascallottaz.substack.com(Opt in for Academic Section from your profile settings:
https://pascallottaz.substack.com/s/academic)Merch:
https://neutralitystudies-shop.fourthwall.comDonation:
https://neutralitystudies.com/donateTimestamps:
00:00:00 Introduction
00:00:13 Ceasefire claims and strategic balance
00:06:31 Iran media view and missile power
00:13:00 Iran resilience and regime change limits
00:17:25 US bases hit and Gulf withdrawal
00:26:41 Israel under strain and ceasefire anger
00:31:35 Two week pause and global shock risk
00:38:47 Europe NATO and American control
00:49:01 Where to follow Douglas Macgregor